The cyclone then struck Saint Maarten and the British Virgin Islands on September 6 and later crossed Little Inagua in the Bahamas on September 8. By September 4, Irma resumed strengthening, and became a powerful Category 5 hurricane on the following day. The storm quickly became a hurricane on August 31 and then a major hurricane shortly thereafter, but would oscillate in intensity over the next few days. ![]() Irma developed from a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands on August 30, 2017. Take a look at the TRAC guidance compared to the deterministic forecast for Irma.Hurricane Irma was the most expensive storm in the history of the U.S. TRAC guidance did an excellent job predicting Irma’s impact into northern Cuba on Friday/Saturday, followed by a northward turn and a track right up the Florida Peninsula. TRAC examines the different model runs and creates a probabilistic forecast that shows the likelihood that the storm will track within 150 miles of any location. Irma was a great example of how a probabilistic forecast like StormGeo’s ensemble-based Threatened Regions from Active Cyclones (TRAC) guidance is a very useful tool for forecasting hurricane tracks. The deterministic track is also not suited to convey forecast uncertainty. Basing your hurricane response plan on one forecast is risky, especially if the forecast is made to the public about a wide region. As can be seen from the model runs posted earlier in the article, this deterministic track changes as the storm progresses and new data is considered. The meteorologists evaluate multiple models and develop a deterministic track that represents the most likely track and intensity of the storm. StormGeo is the only private weather company to issue its own tropical forecasts. See how the models differed widely on where Irma would make its northward turn toward Florida: These model maps should not be used to make preparedness decisions as they do not factor in the experience of a meteorologist, the quality and design of the model, or the uncertainty of the forecast. The “spaghetti plots” for Irma showed many different variables for how the storm would impact the Florida coast. Meteorologists evaluate the model tracks along with other available storm data, including expertise on how the models adjust for these variables when setting their track for a storm. ![]() Each of the models is designed for a different purpose and not all should be considered when determining where a specific storm will track. There are dozens of different models with variables of input, but two of the most well-known are NOAA’s Global Forecasting System (the GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, or the European model). To determine where a storm will track, meteorologists start by looking at computer models. The timing of the curve would be crucial to determining which areas should start preparing for the worse impacts. As Irma tracked across the northeast Caribbean islands, meteorologists saw indications that the storm could curve northward aiming the storm toward Florida. Model GuidanceĮarly in Irma’s lifecycle, StormGeo meteorologists were seeing indications that Irma could become a major hurricane, although the forecast confidence was low as the storm was still early in its track. Irma made landfall in seven different locations along five different Caribbean islands and along different locations in Florida. ![]() Hurricane Irmawas a powerful Category 5 hurricane that caused widespread damage across the Caribbean and Florida in September 2017. Read the Lessons Learned from Barry, Harvey, Ida, Irma and Laura. By understanding the past, we can become better equipped to understand the future. This process helps refine your organization's decision-making processes and how you respond to future threats.Įven if your organization wasn't directly impacted by a specific hurricane, there are still lessons to be learned. One best practice of hurricane preparedness is to evaluate how your response plan performed during previous hurricanes and tropical storms. Preparing for the Future by Understanding the Past
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |